Nigel poses the intriguing idea that, while it’s perhaps obvious that different Value Systems are involved in something as intractable as a real-world peace process for example, and that they need to be identified and addressed in someway, it’s less obvious that something similar is going on with business change in organisations.
What if we were to pose the question the other way round, just for a thought experiment? Because, at one level of abstraction, can a framework that helps analyse and work with tension points in a global corporate also be useful also for analysing and working with geo-political values, trust relationships and tensions? I think perhaps so.
What if we take the VPEC-T framework and, as a complement to existing approaches, apply it to an intractable real-world situation? While taking a little time to reflect on this the other day I asked myself what this might look like if it were somehow adopted by negotiators in the climate change debate…
In my thought experiment there is a meeting of negotiators on the climate change issue. Fortunately a few of them have read the Lost in Translation book and this little blog post! The meeting participants hold the VPEC-T dimensions in mind as they define the principles to address both holistic and specific pieces of the climate change problems. These principles are defined within a PEST framework, expressing these for each interest group – and remember, the VPEC-T dimensions have been held in mind to aid the discussion. In a break-out session someone draws a Venn diagram of Values and finds some intriguing shared challenges, and some new ‘root cause’ tension points. Then someone suggests scenarios are used to see how possible futures might pan out based on different principles – for example contrasting mandatory with voluntary targets, all expressed within the framework…
I remember Nigel once saying to me ‘environmental issues are perhaps the biggest adoption engineering challenge of them all’.
Well, I hope to have the opportunity to float the idea this year via colleagues and associates close to the real climate change work. I want to be clear – I’m not saying VPEC-T can ‘solve’ climate change! – but I do believe it has the potential to provide additional help to those focused on understanding and working with tension points in complex Value Systems, both of the geo-political and business variety. Your thoughts would be very interesting.
The real leverage for me that VPEC-T might make is in prising apart and putting togerther the differing systems within the climate change debate.
First, there is the Science of Climate change. Some of the nay sayers claim that funding dries up if you argue against the consensus and so the consensus is based less on facts and more on chasing funding. It is an example of lack of TRUST and impacts through media on the popular understanding.
Second, there is the monitoring and response to impactof Climate change. The difficulty here is that what everone wants to know is “was this hurricane caused by global warming?” or ” will global warming cause Gloucestershire to flood more often?”. In other words we react to events in what is a long-term trend. What I’m reflecting on is how the other dimensions of VPEC-T might help articulate a way forward
Isn’t the Kyoto Protocol a Policy and at least part of the Content are the scientific papers that support or deny man-made global warming?
Are Events things like; hurricane Katrina, changes in tectonic plate behaviour through heat expansion and rising due to ice melting, ocean current changes (helio-saline effect), …
But also (a differing levels of granularity) the latest meeting of the United Nations committee on climate change, increasing of the congestion charge in inner London for 4×4’s (SUV’s) to 25 pounds, Katy’s - at number 42 Acacia Avenue - decision to recycle everything, UK governments achieving it’s targets of 20% renewables by 2020, etc …
Hi York,
I do think of a continuum of Events as you describe – from high level, coarse-grained down to fine-grained ’signals’ received from a RFID chip. It’s the use of such Event information in combination (from anywhere on from coarse-to-fine scale) that intrigues me. Moreover, understanding the meaning of those Events in the context of other Content (e.g. History or Plans or Expectations) and knowing which Policies are in-play (or should be!) makes for interesting discussion.
Think of VPEC-T as a ‘lens’ that helps have a different type of discussion and, in the context of Events, one that might create insight around the relationship between one Event and another (think Butterfly Effect) regardless of the granularity. This thinking does seem to lend itself to Government information systems and other complex federations where it’s often hard to identify an end-to-end ‘process’ – in this case the chain of Events might be considered as a ‘proxy’ for the hard-to-identify process.
The Earth, third planetary system, from the Sun is a holon; the plant Earth itself, the Moon and other natural and man made satellites. The Earth is therefore a whole in itself and a part of a larger system namely the Solar system. As are the Earths natural satellites, the Moon and any other non man made space flotsam captured by the Earth gravitational field. However most of the man made satellites are not holons as they require other man made control systems on the earth to function or to be serviced by.
The Earth has various sub systems which might be considered holons other not so. The geological systems are not holons, they could not exist without the whole planetary system Earth. Amongst these are the volcanic system, the closely related tectonic plate system, the oceanic system, the atmospheric system, the magnetic polar system, etc … Furthermore the oceanic system is also dependent on the Moon.
However there are some systems on the Earth, that providing a similar Earth like environment, are holons. For example the Earths life forms it’s fauna and flora. Interestingly the flora have been the holons that have most changes the Earth over the last 4 billion years. The flora most effectively altering the Earth being bacteria and their altering of the atmosphere. The fauna have had little environmental impact until the last three hundred years.
Water is Content. A part of the oceanic system, tectonic plate system, atmospheric system and integral to the existence of the flora and fauna.
There is a dependency for, direct or indirect, primary ecosystem energy provision between the encapsulating Solar system holon and most of the flora and fauna. Some of the flora and fauna though can receive their primary ecosystem energy from other means, i.e the volcanic system. Does this lead to a Policy? All ecosystems that support life must have an external heat based energy system as it’s primary source or energy? No, because both the Solar and volcanic eco systems are chemically based. The Solar ones on chlorophyll the volcanic ones on conversion of sulphur. Therefore the Policy is; all ecosystems that support life require a chemical mechanism to convert a readily available input into energy. Heat as an energy source may be a necessary catalyst though to speed up the development of more complex life.
Life, on Earth, has a tendency towards interdependency. Is this a Policy? Complex life forms have a tendency towards cooperation; for example in rearing young. Some complex life build complex social structures, i.e. mammals. Is a social structure a holon?
The current twenty first century human information communication and technology (ICT) society is dependent is on energy from artificially derived mechanization of natural chemical processes. The large numbers of holons, humans, that make up society are now dependent on the ICT society for their survival. Is this a common Value?
It is the Events generated by the ICT social system, and it’s industrial and agriculturally social system precursors, and particularly the ICT societies reliance on mechanized energy production that has lead to climate change.
Am I on the right track here?
Hi Nigel,
Just to finish reasoning from last entry above.
The Values of the ICT society, conspicuous consumption amongst others, lead to the Events of global warming. The Values though are the direct result of the survival mechanisms of the human holons now applied in the ICT society but developed as hunter gatherers in pre agricultural societies. Where to be explicit the Value is feast now in case of famine later. The Policies that govern the expression of the ‘natural’ Values conspicuous consumption are the regulations of pre ICT societal things namely, governments and other public and private organizations.
You mention in chapter two p.27 that Values and Policies are closely aligned as are Events and Content. I’ve been struck with how closely Events are driven by Values. And also how the product of those Events are then responsible for the creation of new Values to counteract the Events of the initial Value set. If initial Value set is, partly, conspicuous consumption then Events are purchase of stuff. Then new Value of ‘greeness’ is result of effects of purchasing stuff Events.
Does this make sense?
All the best,
York.
Hi York
To me, most of this makes sense, though I must admit it some of it stretches the boundaries a little, but that’s a good thing! If I’m following you, I’m not sure if Water is a type of Content for example - perhaps from the VPEC-T perspective a document containing information about the temperature of the water might be.
Btw - I did really like how you started to reverse engineer policy for living systems. I also really like your chain-connection between Events and Values. This is of course a great example of feedback in a system in action.
The hypothesis is that using the 5 dimensions to consider climate change will shine a light on useful insights, and from this, help create new intent for action.
Frankly, I believe the opportunity to work with a couple of colleagues to put this into action would create real value and there are a couple of conversations happening now which might lead to this. Will feedback.
Best wishes,
Carl
Look forward to it. And if I can be of assistance/contribute in any way …
Some more thoughts on water as Content. As stated above water is a part of several of the earth’s geological systems; the oceanic system, tectonic plate system, atmospheric system, and integral to the existence of the earths flora and fauna.
There is a water life cycle, which at a very high level of abstraction is pared down to evaporation and precipitation, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water . Evaporation and transpiration incorporates water into the atmosphere and precipitation water into the oceans, sometimes via precipitation over land masses and eventual flow (run off) into the oceans, often directly into the oceans. Precipitation onto land is essential for the survival of the vast majority of land based life.
The water life cycle is affected by planetary (global) conditions. For example El Nino and La Nina not only effects on precipitation patterns over land masses of South America and Australia but also affects weather patterns globally. Feed back between oceanic system temperatures and evaporation, and atmospheric system precipitation. Water stored as ice in ice sheets, ice flows and glaciers hold a large but now, due to global warming, increasingly diminishing amount of fresh water.
Water is integral to all human societies. Water management is therefore an important part of the functioning and governance of those societies. Water management will be affected by water catchments; aquifers, precipitation run off (glaciers, rivers, lakes), in some desert regions desalination plants. Water catchments will be affected by global precipitation patterns. Which in turn are affected by global warming phenomenon exacerbating natural cycles like El Nino and La Nina.
Therefore water is Content as part of echosphere (biosphere); geological systems, ecological systems (deserts, savannas, rain forests, tundra’s, etc), social systems and human individuals within societies. The same molecules of water travel through all these systems. The interacting threads (p81-84 LiT ) if you will, of themes and processes, through which the Content water moves and is transformed.
The Events that water is subject to are the natural and man made transformations. Transformed by the events that the water molecules are subject to, evaporation, precipitation, capture in natural and man made reservoirs, used as power generation in hydroelectric facilities, consumed by humans, tainted by pollution, used in agriculture and husbandry, drunk by cows, as a constituent of the production of milk, consumed by humans, and so on …
Policies natural and man made. Natural policies are the natural laws that govern its various states ( freezing, vapour, liquid ) and it’s life cycle as it interacts with the earths geological systems. The states are a view at a finely granular level of abstraction at the molecular level, the life cycle at a coarsely grained geological system level. How these natural policies are constant and how they affect the Events as described above. But also how the natural policies are expressed as part of the entire echosphere and how changes to the echosphere affect the expression of those policies. We still have evaporation and transpiration and precipitation but they are modified in there expression through atmospheric and oceanographic temperature variation. Which are a direct result of the green house effect and the green house effect is a direct result of human individual and societal Policies and Values. And transpiration is affected by deforestation Policy.
Question, not sure how Values or Trust can be brought in to natural systems? Clearly though very much part of societal and individual human systems.
The green house effect can also be seen at the finely grained molecular level or more coarsely grained geological systems levels, and other views of granularity in between. From the finely grained carbon, methane, molecular level to the less fined grained particulate level and so on.
Trust between individuals and between individual and societal structures (governments, UN, industry, agriculture, etc ) re effective water management.
Values for example of; equity of access to clean, fresh water for all individuals, fair pricing of water resources, guardianship of water reservoirs (aquifers, glaciers, rivers, lakes, etc ), future proofed management of same for future generations, etc…
Hope this makes some sense VPEC-T wise.
Some more thoughts for your consideration.
People as Content, human holons in the holarchy (a hierarchy of holons) as expressed in the echosphere (biosphere). The human holon as wholes in them selves and parts of the societal holarchies and the effects of population growth on climate change. Some initial thoughts on these ideas in relation to the application of VPEC-T in exploring these issues are presented below.
Policy Chinese one child policy is against Western liberal democratic freedom of choice Values. The policy has lead to original goal of control of largest population group on the plant. This will inevitably mean that there will be a reduced demand on global resources including energy resources that lead to global warming. However the policy has lead to some very bad demographic skewing of population profile, where in the average is 117 to 100 ratio of boys to girls and some regions a ratio of up to 135 to 100 boys to girls. This is because of cultural preference for boys over girls and sex selection through select termination based on sex of foetus. Will likely lead to changes in Chinese society as power balance between sexes alters due to supply and demand economics. Will also likely see a very steep fall in population growth as available women for reproduction for replacement of population will be insufficient to meet replacement of current population at current levels. Also women, particularly in urban areas, are likely to put off child rearing until after starting a career if they follow the profile of their western sisters. Therefore women will hit reproductive buffer as fertility window closes and menopause set in. A pattern of fertility decline common to populations with improving economic conditions. Possibility here of requirement for women to replenish population as a macro governmental policy level and at the micro individual level want for women for emotional and sexual needs. Both these drivers at a micro and macro level could in the worst case scenarios lead to increased trafficking of women or conflict (war) for female resources.
One child Policy had unforeseen consequence of positive impact on climate change through reducing number of individuals that would require energy for cooking, heating, washing, (and other things; food, clothing, housing, consumer goods, pizza, etc … ) . Climate change wasn’t a consideration when the Policy was devised. However also unforeseen negative consequences of dystopian skewing of demographic. Where the Policy is also counter to Chinese cultural Values of the time of large families (particularly in rural agrarian economic sections thereof). Traditional Values had natural expression of proportionality male to female births roughly 105-107 to 100 boys to girls. Therefore Policy broke with Trust of individuals with state for support of traditional Values. Also had a tendency to break Trust between individuals as Policy was enforced often through reporting of offenders to Chinese cultural officers. Women often forced or coerced into terminations of pregnancies. So termination Events lead to break in Trust.
Ethiopian population growth estimated currently at 80 million since famines of 1984 when population was around 51 million. This is a near doubling of population in just over 20 years. Many rural and urban poor still dependent on UN food aid. Droughts and desertification brought about by global warming. Population growth increases pressure on available land, available land decrease due to desertification through over use and deforestation and global warming. Other impacts of population growth and land misuse are soil erosion and wood fuel shortages amongst others. Positive Values of UN humanitarian aid have lead to support of population growth that is unsustainable in relation to current Ethiopian economic development and supporting structures in move from agrarian to society to industrial or ICT service based society. Quality of life for many of these people is still very inadequate (poor). Similar patterns in population growth in other developing countries have lead to similar pressure on land through over use and deforestation and migrations to urban areas which are incapable of adequately supporting the growing number of incomers. Leading to urban sprawl for the most part in substandard shelter in urban squalor of shanty towns. Urban planning necessary but often overlooked. All these incomers to the urban communities have energy needs. Often these supplies are stolen by illegal tapping into the electricity supply network. There are also all the requirements around water resources and sanitation too, pumping water, cleansing waste, which require energy and further add to increase in Outcomes affecting climate change.
Spread of Saharan desert over last 60 years. Reduced rainfall over ecosystem bands from desert to semi arid to savannah areas to forest to jungle. Reduced rainfall leading to encroachment of one ecosystem band on another; desert into semi arid, semi arid into savannah, savannah into forest, forest into jungle. Therefore encroachment of desert into previously non desert ecosystem bands. This process is ongoing so that the semi arid areas bounding the Sahara are now desert and savannah of that time now semi arid, and so on. It is forecast that the rate of change will increase and current semi arid areas will now become desert in much less time than the desertification process over the last 60 years. This is happening both north and south of the Sahara. North into some areas of southern Europe, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, that will encounter further reductions rainfall. Further south into Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, etc. The ability therefore of the ecosystem to support a current population densities, let alone increased densities through continued population growth, will diminish further still as deserts expand into previously fertile areas.
Increased pressure on fresh water aquifers. This is an ongoing issue in many areas. For example one location of particular note are the volcanic aquifers of Central America and in particular Costa Rica. The ‘Earth Sciences Remote Sensing Lab’ http://www.esrs.wmich.edu/urbanization_costa_rica.htm report on Costa Rican unplanned population, agricultural and development growth have lead to pollution of these surface water sources and the aquifers they feed. Without adequate water management continued agricultural and industrial residues, and population effluent will further pollute the run offs and in turn the aquifers. The run offs, particularly on the valley floor are now to polluted for human consumption or recreational use. 1.5 million people are dependent for their drinking water on the volcanic aquifers which are under increasing risk of contamination from the surface water ground water recharge of the aquifers. Values of economic betterment have so far driven Policy, or in this case a lack of Policy, of water management in this region. Unregulated population increase has lead to pressure on the ecosystem and it’s resources.
Therefore people are Content things of ICT, industrial, agrarian and hunter gatherer societies. They are subject to the threads of themes and processes natural and societal. Natural thread of life cycle Process, conception, birth, aging, death. Theme of education owned variously by different stakeholders; governments (local, regional and national), teachers, schools, parents, pressure groups, industry groups (promoting educational trends), and the individual themselves. Process of patterns of pathologies (or lack of them) of health of the individual as organism, a definite correlation here educational Theme. As part of evolutionary process and (selfish) gene replication stretching over millennia. As part of contributors to and subjects of memes in societal evolution. Junk food in ICT societies affecting pathology of individuals. Lack of calories and fresh water in developing societies affecting pathology of individuals. Impact of pathologies in individuals on individuals themselves and on societies in which they live and work. Impact on individuals of water threads (Costa Rican aquifers) or geological threads expansion of Saharan desert.
To warp things up. Individuals (human holons) are the stuff Content of the societies in which they exist, reside, live, are subject to, align themselves, etc. Individuals are subject to the Values and Policies of other individuals and those the society in which they find themselves. They have Trust relationships with individuals and society. Are subject to Threads (Processes and Themes) both natural and societal that intersect their life cycle. Are both generators and consumers of Events at a micro and macro level in the Threads that intersect within the individuals and societies. For example memes at the macro level genes at the micro level. Societies are constituted from the population of individuals (constituents) that form them. The societal (memes) Values and management organs (governments, etc) that formulate Policy (one child) that impact Trust relationship - between individuals and, between individuals and societies (and/or management organs) – that constrain expression of individuals drivers via individual Events - genetic drivers (gene replication), physical drivers (emotional fulfilment), metaphysical drivers (abortion), etc - that produce Outcomes of demographic dystopia. Other Outcomes are deforestation through multiple Events of at a macro level forest clearing or micro level collection of wood for cooking fire. Outcome of global warming through population growth mismanagement (this is a global issue) and requirement of population mass for increased energy consumption.
Also impacts on developed ICT societies through increasing population movements. Possibilities of mass displacement of populations through destruction of habitat due to global warming, too hot, not enough water, too crowded, insufficient resources, etc … Struck by the global nature of these issues, population growth, population movement, water management, global warming. However structures to tackle them are base on pre industrial agrarian concepts of nation state. Some over arching global institutions like UN, NATO, economic cooperation zones, Mercosur, European Union, NAFTA, APEC, but with no real power to coordinate on these important issues. Many of these issues with potential to increase Conflict between groups for control of resources; water sources (Golan heights), population movements (Africa & Middel East to Europe, South and Central America to USA). All of which in one way or another impact or are impacted by global warming.
All a bit of a flow of consciousness but I hope you can see some VPEC-T threads
emerging.
Hi York
This is an interesting perspective and I’d love a face-face to explore amongst other things the ‘physical’ system face of VPEC-T perhaps a little further. As you might imagine, this can get quite philosophical about the meaning of information itself (in our more ‘creative’ moments we have of course ventured down this little path of philo). I see you’re based in London which is rather handy and by email will see if we can hook up.
In the meantime, you may well have heard about the Web Science initiative which I think points the way a little in the ‘collision of disciplines’ and is something I’d suggest is well worth engaging with. Here’s a recent blog post that might interest –
http://www.capgemini.com/ctoblog/2008/03/web_science_it_as_it_really_is.php
By way of a ps, I’m hoping that VPEC-T might prove helpful for WSRI (Web Science Research Initiative) as a common language for the multiple disciplines of the socio-technical.
Best wishes
Carl
ps - nice gag about the threads!
Hi Carl,
Hadn’t heard of WSRI, very interesting, fascinating even. Love to talk this over more face to face.I think VPEC-T would be a valuable and powerful tool in the exploration of these issues.
BTW had also sparked some thinking about philosophical aspects, in particular; hard and soft determinism, reductionism, utilitarianism, and others, in relation to systems theory, AI, socio technical issues. Have you seen further thoughts on VPEC-T Architecture thread?
All the best,
York.
Cool. And will check out the architecture thread too.
cheers
Carl
Had also started to think about the connected issues as a set of intersecting ven diagrams, as per the WSRI butterfly figure, but possibly in four dimensions as apposed to the conventional two (or implied three) dimensions. In fact have been thinking about a set of all sets of meme’s for a while now. Although issues arise around Godel’s Theorem and completeness.
Pleases find here http://wiki.rulefinancial.com/Web_Science a page exploring, in context, some of the main concepts of the Web Science Research Initiative.
Great meeting with you all last week, thanks for the orange juice and interesting VPEC-T confab. I got a better understanding of the communication framework and I don’t often get a chance to wax lyrical. I’m increasingly of the view that the power of the framework is as a mediation tool in conflict resolution; climate change, world trade talks, G8, Haringey Council meetings, marriage guidance. Interesting to see how effective it would be in finding common ground in an extreme example of conflicting belief systems; radical Islam & liberal western democracy, pro life & pro choice in abortion debate, pro (Finland, Japan, … ) & anit (Greenpeace) whaling interests, etc.
Chris. Re the Content and framework. As Nigel suggested all dimensions of VPEC-T are Content. However also Events are pro generators of Content. Events spawn Content as well as providing points in a process in which Content is moving along a process thread might be touched (modified, extracted, enriched, etc ). I would say in relation to conflict resolution that use of VPEC-T provides Event in which memes of opposing parties are modified. So that internal meme meaning to individuals are realigned in some way and therefore memes expression in group is modified as a result of collective changes in parts of group whole. The upper parent holons change as a result of changes in the holiarcy of child holons that make up it’s constituent parts. In the case the groups (parent holon) changes as result of changes in individuals (child holons) within the group.
Carl. The above also therefore along lines you were talking about re autonomous meaning making machines (AMMM). The group is an AMMM – a holarchic whole - as are the individuals – the holiarchic whole parts - within it, (the group is also a part of larger societal groups.)
Nigel suggested at end of meeting that we start up a VPEC-T wiki and that I read a couple of papers from Roger Sessions site re Simple Iterative Partitions (SIP).
Q. What are next steps in your minds?
Q. How shall we start to organise wiki? Capgemini infrastructure?
After the recent trouncing of the Lisbon (European) Treaty by the Irish I wondered whether VPEC-T can help?
Values - National, European; conflicting and complementary
Policy - The constituent parts of the treaty
Events - The vote
Content - The treaty, which no one understands
Trust - Complete lack of, as the populace doesn’t trust the EU bureaucrats or understands the treaty
Could VPEC-T thinking have helped the EUcrats to a “Yes” vote by revealing the weakness - lack of trust - and identifying the causes and addressing. Or is this too obvious?